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Naxxar Lions vs Oratory Youths — FA Trophy 2020

Naxxar Lions
Naxxar Lions
FT
5 – 1
Oratory Youths
Oratory Youths
11/16/2022FA TrophyFA Trophy · Preliminary RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Naxxar Lions95%
×Draw4%
Oratory Youths1%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naxxar Lions
5.17
Oratory Youths
0.67

Naxxar Lions creates 672% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Naxxar Lions
4.33
Oratory Youths
0.67

allows per match

Naxxar Lions
0.67
Oratory Youths
6.00

finishing

Naxxar Lions+0.00on par
Oratory Youths+0.00on par

Total goals

91%Over
  • Over91
  • Under9

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naxxar Lions ↓

Oratory Youths →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–10%
0–20%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–02%
1–11%
1–20%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–012%
4–18%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 4–0 (12%) · grid covers 56% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
91%9%3.5
77%23%4.5
58%42%

Double chance

Naxxar Lions or draw
99%
Naxxar Lions or Oratory Youths
96%
Draw or Oratory Youths
5%

Winning margin

Naxxar Lions wins by 2+
87%
Oratory Youths wins by 2+
0%

Team goals

Naxxar Lions 1+ goals
99%
Naxxar Lions 2+ goals
95%
Naxxar Lions 3+ goals
85%
Oratory Youths 1+ goals
49%
Oratory Youths 2+ goals
15%
Oratory Youths 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Naxxar Lions (draw refunded)
99%
Oratory Youths (draw refunded)
1%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naxxar Lions at home — creates 4.33, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Oratory Youths away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naxxar Lions attack 4.33 + Oratory Youths defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 5.17

Oratory Youths attack 0.67 + Naxxar Lions defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 95%?"

Naxxar Lions scores more
95%
level
4%
Oratory Youths scores more
1%

Naxxar Lions at 95% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 95% does not mean "Naxxar Lions will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naxxar Lions vs Oratory Youths

Naxxar Lions beat Oratory Youths 5-1 in FA Trophy on November 16, 2022.

The match was played at Victor Tedesco Stadium in Hamrun.