Naxxar Lions 4–2 Gzira United: Result & Stats

Naxxar Lions

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Gzira United

N. Pahama 90', 71'

G. Costa Goncalves 68'

Vitinho 19'

Andre Carlos 63'

Maxuell Samurai 61'

2/17/2026

League #393 · Second Stage - Main - 23Victor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Naxxar Lions35%

×Draw25%

Gzira United40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naxxar LionsExpected goals in this matchGzira United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.45

Naxxar Lions

1.33

Gzira United

1.45

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 10 home / 47 away

1.10

creates per match

1.30

1.60

allows per match

1.55

creates per match

Naxxar Lions

1.10

Gzira United

1.30

allows per match

Naxxar Lions

1.60

Gzira United

1.55

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naxxar Lions+0.00on par

Gzira United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naxxar Lions ↓

Gzira United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Naxxar Lions or draw

60%

Naxxar Lions or Gzira United

75%

Draw or Gzira United

65%

Winning margin

Naxxar Lions wins by 2+

15%

Gzira United wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Naxxar Lions 1+ goals

74%

Naxxar Lions 2+ goals

38%

Naxxar Lions 3+ goals

15%

Gzira United 1+ goals

77%

Gzira United 2+ goals

42%

Gzira United 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Naxxar Lions (draw refunded)

46%

Gzira United (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naxxar Lions at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.60 · 10 matches

Gzira United away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naxxar Lions attack 1.10 + Gzira United defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Gzira United attack 1.30 + Naxxar Lions defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Naxxar Lions scores more

35%

level

25%

Gzira United scores more

40%

Gzira United at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Gzira United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

19'

41'

45+2'

46'

46'

Andre Carlos← S. Martinez

46'

54'

61'

63'

68'

70'

71'

79'

80'

S. Bastic← J. Bonilla

87'

S. Guehi← G. Costa Goncalves

90'

M. Fenech

90+1'

Theo Kruger← Vinicius Baiano

90'

N. Pahama

Naxxar

Gzira

33

Colombo

3

▼

Mentz

6

▼

Borg

7

▼

Martinez

8

▼

Borg

10

⚽

14

22

23

57

▼

96

1

3

5

7

10

▼

Farias

11

⚽

Vitinho

18

Letherby

19

Rosiel

20

⚽

▼

Goncalves

24

▼

Baiano

33

Moura

Manager: Winston Muscat

54'▲N. Pahama←▼E. Farias

87'▲S. Guehi←▼G. Costa Goncalves

90+1'▲Theo Kruger←▼Vinicius Baiano

Naxxar Lions substitutes

80Azzopardi4Kruger8Cocks9Pahama13Bugeja14Gauci17Bugeja21Micallef25Portelli26Borg30Guehi

Manager: Darren Abdilla

46'▲D. Abela←▼G. Mentz

46'▲Andre Carlos←▼S. Martinez

46'▲N. Cassar←▼A. Borg

79'▲D. Farrugia←▼B. Borg

80'▲S. Bastic←▼J. Bonilla

Gzira United substitutes

1Sargent20Galea5Abela9Carlos11Farrugia19Bastic25Ghigo28Cassar29Previ30Xuereb98Kante

League #393: Naxxar Lions 4–2 Gzira United

Naxxar Lions beat Gzira United 4-2 in League #393 on February 17, 2026.

Goals: Vitinho (19'), Maxuell Samurai (61'), Andre Carlos (63'), G. Costa Goncalves (68'), N. Pahama (71', 90').

The match was played at Victor Tedesco Stadium in Hamrun.

Naxxar Lions vs Gzira United — League #393 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League #393: Naxxar Lions 4–2 Gzira United