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Náxara vs Tedeón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Náxara
Náxara
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Tedeón
Tedeón
10/18/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 1Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Náxara74%
×Draw16%
Tedeón10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náxara
2.40
Tedeón
0.73

Náxara creates 229% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 49 away

creates per match

Náxara
2.56
Tedeón
0.78

allows per match

Náxara
0.69
Tedeón
2.24

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par
Tedeón+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Tedeón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Náxara or draw
90%
Náxara or Tedeón
84%
Draw or Tedeón
26%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+
51%
Tedeón wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals
91%
Náxara 2+ goals
69%
Náxara 3+ goals
42%
Tedeón 1+ goals
52%
Tedeón 2+ goals
17%
Tedeón 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)
89%
Tedeón (draw refunded)
11%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Tedeón away — creates 0.78, concedes 2.24 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Tedeón defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.40

Tedeón attack 0.78 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Náxara scores more
74%
level
16%
Tedeón scores more
10%

Náxara at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16: Náxara 2–1 Tedeón

Náxara beat Tedeón 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on October 18, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio La Salera in Nájera.