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Náxara vs River Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Náxara
Náxara
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
River Ebro
River Ebro
2/19/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 21Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Náxara68%
×Draw19%
River Ebro14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náxara
2.24
River Ebro
0.89

Náxara creates 152% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 93 away

creates per match

Náxara
2.56
River Ebro
1.09

allows per match

Náxara
0.69
River Ebro
1.92

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par
River Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

River Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Náxara or draw
86%
Náxara or River Ebro
81%
Draw or River Ebro
32%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+
44%
River Ebro wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals
89%
Náxara 2+ goals
65%
Náxara 3+ goals
38%
River Ebro 1+ goals
59%
River Ebro 2+ goals
22%
River Ebro 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)
83%
River Ebro (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

River Ebro away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.92 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + River Ebro defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.24

River Ebro attack 1.09 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Náxara scores more
68%
level
19%
River Ebro scores more
14%

Náxara at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Náxara vs River Ebro

Náxara beat River Ebro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on February 19, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Salera in Nájera.