Náxara vs Pradejón: Preview & Prediction

Náxara

CANC

00:00

Pradejón

4/19/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 34Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Náxara67%

×Draw19%

Pradejón14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NáxaraExpected goals in this matchPradejón

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.93

Náxara

2.23

Pradejón

0.93

Náxara creates 140% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 46 away

2.56

creates per match

1.17

0.69

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Náxara

2.56

Pradejón

1.17

allows per match

Náxara

0.69

Pradejón

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par

Pradejón+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Pradejón →

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Náxara or draw

86%

Náxara or Pradejón

81%

Draw or Pradejón

33%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+

43%

Pradejón wins by 2+

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals

89%

Náxara 2+ goals

65%

Náxara 3+ goals

38%

Pradejón 1+ goals

61%

Pradejón 2+ goals

24%

Pradejón 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)

82%

Pradejón (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Pradejón away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.91 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Pradejón defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.23

Pradejón attack 1.17 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Náxara scores more

67%

level

19%

Pradejón scores more

14%

Náxara at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Náxara vs Pradejón — Match Preview

Náxara face Pradejón on April 19, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Náxara host Pradejón at Estadio La Salera.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.

Náxara vs Pradejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Náxara vs Pradejón — Match Preview