Náxara 2–0 Peña Balsamaiso: Result & Stats

Náxara

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Peña Balsamaiso

3/23/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Náxara69%

×Draw18%

Peña Balsamaiso13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NáxaraExpected goals in this matchPeña Balsamaiso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.23

0.83

Náxara

2.23

Peña Balsamaiso

0.83

Náxara creates 169% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 66 away

2.56

creates per match

0.97

0.69

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Náxara

2.56

Peña Balsamaiso

0.97

allows per match

Náxara

0.69

Peña Balsamaiso

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par

Peña Balsamaiso+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Peña Balsamaiso →

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–011%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–05%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Náxara or draw

87%

Náxara or Peña Balsamaiso

82%

Draw or Peña Balsamaiso

31%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+

45%

Peña Balsamaiso wins by 2+

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals

89%

Náxara 2+ goals

65%

Náxara 3+ goals

38%

Peña Balsamaiso 1+ goals

56%

Peña Balsamaiso 2+ goals

20%

Peña Balsamaiso 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)

85%

Peña Balsamaiso (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Peña Balsamaiso away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.91 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Peña Balsamaiso defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.23

Peña Balsamaiso attack 0.97 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Náxara scores more

69%

level

18%

Peña Balsamaiso scores more

13%

Náxara at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff