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Náxara vs Oyonesa — Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 2019

Náxara
Náxara
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oyonesa
Oyonesa
4/2/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 16Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 27Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Náxara58%
×Draw22%
Oyonesa20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Náxara
1.88
Oyonesa
1.01

Náxara creates 86% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 109 away

creates per match

Náxara
2.56
Oyonesa
1.33

allows per match

Náxara
0.69
Oyonesa
1.20

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par
Oyonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Oyonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Náxara or draw
80%
Náxara or Oyonesa
78%
Draw or Oyonesa
42%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+
33%
Oyonesa wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals
85%
Náxara 2+ goals
56%
Náxara 3+ goals
29%
Oyonesa 1+ goals
64%
Oyonesa 2+ goals
27%
Oyonesa 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)
74%
Oyonesa (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Oyonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.20 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Oyonesa defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.88

Oyonesa attack 1.33 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Náxara scores more
58%
level
22%
Oyonesa scores more
20%

Náxara at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Náxara vs Oyonesa

Náxara and Oyonesa drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 on April 2, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio La Salera in Nájera.