Náxara 5–0 Haro Deportivo: Result & Stats

Náxara

5 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Haro Deportivo

1/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 16 · Group 16 - 17Estadio La Salera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Náxara67%

×Draw20%

Haro Deportivo14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NáxaraExpected goals in this matchHaro Deportivo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.08

0.81

Náxara

2.08

Haro Deportivo

0.81

Náxara creates 157% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 81 away

2.56

creates per match

0.94

0.69

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Náxara

2.56

Haro Deportivo

0.94

allows per match

Náxara

0.69

Haro Deportivo

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Náxara+0.00on par

Haro Deportivo+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Náxara ↓

Haro Deportivo →

0–06%

0–15%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1–012%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–04%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Náxara or draw

86%

Náxara or Haro Deportivo

80%

Draw or Haro Deportivo

33%

Winning margin

Náxara wins by 2+

42%

Haro Deportivo wins by 2+

Team goals

Náxara 1+ goals

87%

Náxara 2+ goals

61%

Náxara 3+ goals

34%

Haro Deportivo 1+ goals

56%

Haro Deportivo 2+ goals

19%

Haro Deportivo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Náxara (draw refunded)

83%

Haro Deportivo (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Náxara at home — creates 2.56, concedes 0.69 · 59 matches

Haro Deportivo away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.60 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Náxara attack 2.56 + Haro Deportivo defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.08

Haro Deportivo attack 0.94 + Náxara defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 67%?"

Náxara scores more

67%

level

20%

Haro Deportivo scores more

14%

Náxara at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Náxara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff