Navy FC 1–0 Ubon UMT: Result & Stats

Navy FC

FT

1 – 0

Ubon UMT

7/13/2019

Thai League 2 · Round 20Sattahip Stadium (Sattahip)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Navy FC46%

×Draw26%

Ubon UMT28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Navy FCExpected goals in this matchUbon UMT

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.45

1.08

Navy FC

1.45

Ubon UMT

1.08

Navy FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

1.14

creates per match

0.82

1.35

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Navy FC

1.14

Ubon UMT

0.82

allows per match

Navy FC

1.35

Ubon UMT

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par

Ubon UMT+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Ubon UMT →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw

72%

Navy FC or Ubon UMT

74%

Draw or Ubon UMT

54%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+

22%

Ubon UMT wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals

77%

Navy FC 2+ goals

42%

Navy FC 3+ goals

18%

Ubon UMT 1+ goals

66%

Ubon UMT 2+ goals

29%

Ubon UMT 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)

62%

Ubon UMT (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Ubon UMT away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Ubon UMT defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.45

Ubon UMT attack 0.82 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Navy FC scores more

46%

level

26%

Ubon UMT scores more

28%

Navy FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff