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Navy FC vs Trat FC — FA Cup 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
0 – 5
Trat FC
Trat FC
6/19/2019FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Navy FC40%
×Draw18%
Trat FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
2.67
Trat FC
2.70

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Navy FC
3.20
Trat FC
4.00

allows per match

Navy FC
1.40
Trat FC
2.14

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Trat FC+0.00on par

Total goals

90%Over
  • Over90
  • Under10

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

87%Yes
  • Yes87
  • No13

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Trat FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–22%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–01%
1–13%
1–25%
1–34%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–26%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–24%
4–33%
4–42%

Most likely 2–2 (6%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
97%3%2.5
90%10%3.5
77%23%4.5
61%39%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
59%
Navy FC or Trat FC
82%
Draw or Trat FC
60%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
24%
Trat FC wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
93%
Navy FC 2+ goals
74%
Navy FC 3+ goals
49%
Trat FC 1+ goals
93%
Trat FC 2+ goals
75%
Trat FC 3+ goals
50%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
49%
Trat FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
83%
Both score & under 3
3%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Trat FC away — creates 4.00, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 3.20 + Trat FC defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.67

Trat FC attack 4.00 + Navy FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 2.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Navy FC scores more
40%
level
18%
Trat FC scores more
41%

Trat FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Trat FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navy FC vs Trat FC

Trat FC beat Navy FC 5-0 in FA Cup on June 19, 2019.