Navy FC 1–1 Raj Pracha: Result & Stats

Navy FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Raj Pracha

9/25/2021

Thai League 2 · Round 5Sattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Navy FC42%

×Draw28%

Raj Pracha30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Navy FCExpected goals in this matchRaj Pracha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.02

Navy FC

1.27

Raj Pracha

1.02

Navy FC creates 25% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 34 away

1.14

creates per match

0.68

1.35

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Navy FC

1.14

Raj Pracha

0.68

allows per match

Navy FC

1.35

Raj Pracha

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par

Raj Pracha+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Raj Pracha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw

70%

Navy FC or Raj Pracha

72%

Draw or Raj Pracha

58%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+

19%

Raj Pracha wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals

72%

Navy FC 2+ goals

36%

Navy FC 3+ goals

14%

Raj Pracha 1+ goals

64%

Raj Pracha 2+ goals

27%

Raj Pracha 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)

59%

Raj Pracha (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Raj Pracha away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.41 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Raj Pracha defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Raj Pracha attack 0.68 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Navy FC scores more

42%

level

28%

Raj Pracha scores more

30%

Navy FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff