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Navy FC vs Prachuap — League Cup 2021

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
1 – 6
HT: 1 – 1
Prachuap
Prachuap
12/6/2023League CupLeague Cup · 1st RoundSattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Navy FC10%
×Draw16%
Prachuap73%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
0.77
Prachuap
2.41

Prachuap creates 213% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Navy FC
0.75
Prachuap
2.56

allows per match

Navy FC
2.25
Prachuap
0.78

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Prachuap+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Prachuap →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–110%
0–212%
0–310%
0–46%
1
1–03%
1–18%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
27%
Navy FC or Prachuap
84%
Draw or Prachuap
90%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
3%
Prachuap wins by 2+
50%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
54%
Navy FC 2+ goals
18%
Navy FC 3+ goals
4%
Prachuap 1+ goals
91%
Prachuap 2+ goals
69%
Prachuap 3+ goals
43%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
12%
Prachuap (draw refunded)
88%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Prachuap away — creates 2.56, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 0.75 + Prachuap defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.77

Prachuap attack 2.56 + Navy FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Navy FC scores more
10%
level
16%
Prachuap scores more
73%

Prachuap at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Prachuap will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Navy FC 1–6 Prachuap

Prachuap beat Navy FC 6-1 in League Cup on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.