Navy FC 2–0 Muang Loei United: Result & Stats

Navy FC

2 – 0

Muang Loei United

6/27/2018

FA Cup · 1st Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Navy FC51%

×Draw20%

Muang Loei United29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Navy FCExpected goals in this matchMuang Loei United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.70

Navy FC

2.27

Muang Loei United

1.70

Navy FC creates 34% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 6 away

3.20

creates per match

2.00

1.40

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Navy FC

3.20

Muang Loei United

2.00

allows per match

Navy FC

1.40

Muang Loei United

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par

Muang Loei United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Muang Loei United →

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw

71%

Navy FC or Muang Loei United

80%

Draw or Muang Loei United

49%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+

30%

Muang Loei United wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals

90%

Navy FC 2+ goals

66%

Navy FC 3+ goals

39%

Muang Loei United 1+ goals

82%

Muang Loei United 2+ goals

51%

Muang Loei United 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)

63%

Muang Loei United (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 3.20, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

Muang Loei United away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 3.20 + Muang Loei United defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 2.27

Muang Loei United attack 2.00 + Navy FC defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 51%?"

Navy FC scores more

51%

level

20%

Muang Loei United scores more

29%

Navy FC at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff