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Navy FC vs Lampang FC — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
1 – 0
Lampang FC
Lampang FC
3/1/2020Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 4Sattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navy FC36%
×Draw26%
Lampang FC38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.34
Lampang FC
1.37

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 102 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Lampang FC
1.39

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Lampang FC
1.54

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Lampang FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Lampang FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
62%
Navy FC or Lampang FC
74%
Draw or Lampang FC
64%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
16%
Lampang FC wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
74%
Navy FC 2+ goals
39%
Navy FC 3+ goals
15%
Lampang FC 1+ goals
75%
Lampang FC 2+ goals
40%
Lampang FC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
49%
Lampang FC (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Lampang FC away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.54 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Lampang FC defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.34

Lampang FC attack 1.39 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Navy FC scores more
36%
level
26%
Lampang FC scores more
38%

Lampang FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Lampang FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Thai League 2: Navy FC 1–0 Lampang FC

Navy FC beat Lampang FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.