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Navy FC vs Khonkaen — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
0 – 1
Khonkaen
Khonkaen
3/14/2021Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 29Sattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navy FC42%
×Draw26%
Khonkaen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.40
Khonkaen
1.19

Navy FC creates 18% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 65 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Khonkaen
1.02

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Khonkaen
1.66

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Khonkaen+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Khonkaen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
68%
Navy FC or Khonkaen
74%
Draw or Khonkaen
58%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
20%
Khonkaen wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
75%
Navy FC 2+ goals
41%
Navy FC 3+ goals
17%
Khonkaen 1+ goals
70%
Khonkaen 2+ goals
33%
Khonkaen 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
57%
Khonkaen (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Khonkaen away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.66 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Khonkaen defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.40

Khonkaen attack 1.02 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Navy FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Khonkaen scores more
32%

Navy FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navy FC vs Khonkaen

Khonkaen beat Navy FC 1-0 in Thai League 2 on March 14, 2021.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.