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Navy FC vs Cha Choeng Sao — League Cup 2021

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
0 – 3
Cha Choeng Sao
Cha Choeng Sao
9/8/2024League CupLeague Cup · 2nd Qualifying RoundSattahip Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Navy FC16%
×Draw21%
Cha Choeng Sao62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
0.88
Cha Choeng Sao
1.96

Cha Choeng Sao creates 123% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

creates per match

Navy FC
0.75
Cha Choeng Sao
1.67

allows per match

Navy FC
2.25
Cha Choeng Sao
1.00

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Cha Choeng Sao+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Cha Choeng Sao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–111%
0–211%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–24%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
38%
Navy FC or Cha Choeng Sao
79%
Draw or Cha Choeng Sao
84%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
5%
Cha Choeng Sao wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
59%
Navy FC 2+ goals
22%
Navy FC 3+ goals
6%
Cha Choeng Sao 1+ goals
86%
Cha Choeng Sao 2+ goals
58%
Cha Choeng Sao 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
21%
Cha Choeng Sao (draw refunded)
79%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Cha Choeng Sao away — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 0.75 + Cha Choeng Sao defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Cha Choeng Sao attack 1.67 + Navy FC defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Navy FC scores more
16%
level
21%
Cha Choeng Sao scores more
62%

Cha Choeng Sao at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Cha Choeng Sao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League Cup: Navy FC 0–3 Cha Choeng Sao

Cha Choeng Sao beat Navy FC 3-0 in League Cup on September 8, 2024.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium in Sattahip.