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Navy FC vs Air Force Central FC — Thai League 2 2018

Navy FC
Navy FC
FT
3 – 1
Air Force Central FC
Air Force Central FC
10/19/2019Thai League 2Thai League 2 · Round 33Sattahip Stadium (Sattahip)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Navy FC45%
×Draw25%
Air Force Central FC30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navy FC
1.51
Air Force Central FC
1.18

Navy FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 17 away

creates per match

Navy FC
1.14
Air Force Central FC
1.00

allows per match

Navy FC
1.35
Air Force Central FC
1.88

finishing

Navy FC+0.00on par
Air Force Central FC+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navy FC ↓

Air Force Central FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Navy FC or draw
70%
Navy FC or Air Force Central FC
75%
Draw or Air Force Central FC
55%

Winning margin

Navy FC wins by 2+
22%
Air Force Central FC wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Navy FC 1+ goals
78%
Navy FC 2+ goals
44%
Navy FC 3+ goals
19%
Air Force Central FC 1+ goals
69%
Air Force Central FC 2+ goals
33%
Air Force Central FC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Navy FC (draw refunded)
60%
Air Force Central FC (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navy FC at home — creates 1.14, concedes 1.35 · 51 matches

Air Force Central FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navy FC attack 1.14 + Air Force Central FC defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.51

Air Force Central FC attack 1.00 + Navy FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Navy FC scores more
45%
level
25%
Air Force Central FC scores more
30%

Navy FC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Navy FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navy FC vs Air Force Central FC

Navy FC beat Air Force Central FC 3-1 in Thai League 2 on October 19, 2019.

The match was played at Sattahip Stadium (Sattahip).