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Navbahor vs Turan — Super League 2026

Navbahor
Navbahor
FT
5 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Turan
Turan
9/28/2023Super LeagueSuper League · Round 20Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Navbahor61%
×Draw25%
Turan15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navbahor
1.60
Turan
0.64

Navbahor creates 150% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 13 away

creates per match

Navbahor
1.34
Turan
0.62

allows per match

Navbahor
0.66
Turan
1.85

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par
Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Turan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw
85%
Navbahor or Turan
75%
Draw or Turan
39%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+
33%
Turan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals
80%
Navbahor 2+ goals
47%
Navbahor 3+ goals
22%
Turan 1+ goals
47%
Turan 2+ goals
14%
Turan 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)
80%
Turan (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.34, concedes 0.66 · 98 matches

Turan away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.34 + Turan defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Turan attack 0.62 + Navbahor defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Navbahor scores more
61%
level
25%
Turan scores more
15%

Navbahor at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navbahor vs Turan

Navbahor beat Turan 5-0 in Super League on September 28, 2023.

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Namangan.