Navbahor 0–0 Turan: Result & Stats | Super League

Navbahor

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Turan

4/16/2021

Super League · Round 6Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Navbahor60%

×Draw25%

Turan14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavbahorExpected goals in this matchTuran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.61

Navbahor

1.55

Turan

0.61

Navbahor creates 154% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 13 away

1.33

creates per match

0.54

0.68

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Navbahor

1.33

Turan

0.54

allows per match

Navbahor

0.68

Turan

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par

Turan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Turan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw

86%

Navbahor or Turan

75%

Draw or Turan

40%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+

32%

Turan wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals

79%

Navbahor 2+ goals

46%

Navbahor 3+ goals

20%

Turan 1+ goals

46%

Turan 2+ goals

13%

Turan 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)

81%

Turan (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Turan away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.77 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Turan defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.55

Turan attack 0.54 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Navbahor scores more

60%

level

25%

Turan scores more

14%

Navbahor at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

A. Abdulkhakov

10'

D. Umirov

34'

S. Stojanovic

46'

E. Panshanbe← A. Gulomov

53'

Z. Urinboev← S. Stojanović

56'

A. Qayumov← K. Karikari

66'

M. Gofurov

69'

B. Toshmirzaev← A. Abdurashidov

76'

S. Mahmudxojiyev← B. Abdurakhimov

79'

S. Babić← A. Abdulkhakov

90+3'

A. Kayumov

Navbahor

Turan

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: V. Djalilov

46'▲E. Panshanbe←▼A. Gulomov

53'▲Z. Urinboev←▼S. Stojanović

76'▲S. Mahmudxojiyev←▼B. Abdurakhimov

Navbahor substitutes

PanshanbeUrinboevMahmudxojiyevMirakhmatovTasićDavronovTelyakov

Manager: I. Ismoilov

56'▲A. Qayumov←▼K. Karikari

69'▲B. Toshmirzaev←▼A. Abdurashidov

79'▲S. Babić←▼A. Abdulkhakov

Turan substitutes

QayumovToshmirzaevBabićMekhmonovSokhibovJalilovErmatov