Navbahor 4–0 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats

Navbahor

FT

4 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv

S. Haghnazari 90+4'

J. Đokić 62'

O. Hamrobekov 50'

J. Boltaboyev 29'

5/5/2024

Super League · Round 6Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Navbahor45%

×Draw28%

Lokomotiv27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavbahorExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.92

Navbahor

1.29

Lokomotiv

0.92

Navbahor creates 40% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 74 away

1.33

creates per match

1.16

0.68

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Navbahor

1.33

Lokomotiv

1.16

allows per match

Navbahor

0.68

Lokomotiv

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw

73%

Navbahor or Lokomotiv

72%

Draw or Lokomotiv

55%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+

21%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals

72%

Navbahor 2+ goals

37%

Navbahor 3+ goals

14%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

60%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

23%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)

63%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Lokomotiv defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.29

Lokomotiv attack 1.16 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Navbahor scores more

45%

level

28%

Lokomotiv scores more

27%

Navbahor at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

T. Tabatadze

29'

J. Boltaboyev

45+2'

S. Komilov

46'

A. Ismailov← S. Komilov

50'

O. Hamrobekov

53'

I. Bulatović← I. Abdullaev

54'

D. Komilov

62'

J. Đokić

70'

I. Yoldoshev← A. Ismailov

73'

S. Sindarov← D. Krajišnik

78'

R. Jiyanov← A. Sobirjonov

81'

Q. Abrayev← S. Abdunabiyev

83'

N. Iminjonov← T. Tabatadze

83'

S. Haghnazari← J. Iskanderov

90+4'

S. Haghnazari

Navbahor

Lokomotiv

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Babayan

70'▲I. Yoldoshev←▼A. Ismailov

78'▲R. Jiyanov←▼A. Sobirjonov

83'▲N. Iminjonov←▼T. Tabatadze

83'▲S. Haghnazari←▼J. Iskanderov

Navbahor substitutes

YoldoshevJiyanovIminjonovHaghnazariLobanovAbdulhayevNikabadzeO'ktamovAbdulboriev

Manager: Y. Nazarov

46'▲A. Ismailov←▼S. Komilov

53'▲I. Bulatović←▼I. Abdullaev

73'▲S. Sindarov←▼D. Krajišnik

81'▲Q. Abrayev←▼S. Abdunabiyev

Lokomotiv substitutes

IsmailovBulatovićSindarovAbrayevBaklanovKhoshimboyevMirzayevSultanov

Super League: Navbahor 4–0 Lokomotiv

Navbahor beat Lokomotiv 4-0 in Super League on May 5, 2024.

Goals: J. Boltaboyev (29'), O. Hamrobekov (50'), J. Đokić (62'), S. Haghnazari (90+4').

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Namangan.

Navbahor vs Lokomotiv — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Super League: Navbahor 4–0 Lokomotiv