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Navbahor vs Andijan — Super League 2026

Navbahor
Navbahor
Preview
16:00
Andijan
Andijan
10/30/2026Super LeagueSuper League · Round 26Markaziy Stadium
Big match
52%
Navbahor
model favours
52%27%21%
1–0
likely score
60%
under 2.5 goals
43%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Navbahor52%
×Draw27%
Andijan21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navbahor
1.46
Andijan
0.82

Navbahor creates 78% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 88 away

creates per match

Navbahor
1.33
Andijan
0.97

allows per match

Navbahor
0.68
Andijan
1.58

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par
Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 60Over: 4060%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Andijan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw
79%
Navbahor or Andijan
73%
Draw or Andijan
48%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+
26%
Andijan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals
77%
Navbahor 2+ goals
43%
Navbahor 3+ goals
18%
Andijan 1+ goals
56%
Andijan 2+ goals
20%
Andijan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)
71%
Andijan (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Andijan attack 0.97 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Navbahor scores more
52%
level
27%
Andijan scores more
21%

Navbahor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Form
Navbahor
DLDLD
Andijan
DLDWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Navbahor face Andijan (Super League)

Super League returns with Navbahor hosting Andijan. Match starts October 30, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Navbahor host Andijan at Markaziy Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.