Navbahor 3–3 Andijan: Result & Stats | Super League

Navbahor

FT

3 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Andijan

R. Jiyanov 90+7'

J. Đokić 58'

J. Iskanderov 53' (pen)

Islombek Mamatkazin 71'

R. Turdimurodov 60'

S. Azimov 45+1'

11/30/2024

Super League · Round 26Markaziy Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 88+ matches

Navbahor52%

×Draw27%

Andijan21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavbahorExpected goals in this matchAndijan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.82

Navbahor

1.46

Andijan

0.82

Navbahor creates 78% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 88 away

1.33

creates per match

0.97

0.68

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Navbahor

1.33

Andijan

0.97

allows per match

Navbahor

0.68

Andijan

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navbahor+0.00on par

Andijan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navbahor ↓

Andijan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Navbahor or draw

79%

Navbahor or Andijan

73%

Draw or Andijan

48%

Winning margin

Navbahor wins by 2+

26%

Andijan wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Navbahor 1+ goals

77%

Navbahor 2+ goals

43%

Navbahor 3+ goals

18%

Andijan 1+ goals

56%

Andijan 2+ goals

20%

Andijan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Navbahor (draw refunded)

71%

Andijan (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navbahor at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.68 · 96 matches

Andijan away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.58 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navbahor attack 1.33 + Andijan defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.46

Andijan attack 0.97 + Navbahor defence 0.68 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Navbahor scores more

52%

level

27%

Andijan scores more

21%

Navbahor at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Navbahor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Akhmedov

41'

F. Ivanovic

45+1'

S. Azimov

46'

K. Tojidinov← F. Sayfiyev

46'

N. Iminjonov← G. Nikabadze

46'

I. Alijanov← S. Azimov

53'

J. IskanderovPenalty

57'

R. Jiyanov← F. Ivanović

58'

J. Đokić

60'

R. Turdimurodov

66'

F. Bekmurodov← M. Toirov

66'

F. Sohibjonov← A. Komilov

71'

Islombek Mamatkazin

73'

D. Temirov

80'

R. Turdimurodov

80'

S. Samiev← R. Turdimurodov

90+1'

O. Khamrobekov

90+4'

A. Nurymbet← B. Abdumannonov

90+7'

R. Jiyanov

Navbahor

Andijan

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Manager: S. Lushchan

46'▲K. Tojidinov←▼F. Sayfiyev

46'▲N. Iminjonov←▼G. Nikabadze

57'▲R. Jiyanov←▼F. Ivanović

Navbahor substitutes

TojidinovIminjonovJiyanovIsmailovJuraboyevKarimovAbdujabborovTursunovMa'rupov

Manager: A. Khomyakov

46'▲I. Alijanov←▼S. Azimov

66'▲F. Bekmurodov←▼M. Toirov

66'▲F. Sohibjonov←▼A. Komilov

80'▲S. Samiev←▼R. Turdimurodov

90+4'▲A. Nurymbet←▼B. Abdumannonov

Andijan substitutes

AlijanovBekmurodovSohibjonovSamievNurymbetLytovkaPeceljZgurskiyChobanov

Match Recap: Navbahor vs Andijan

Navbahor and Andijan drew 3-3 in Super League on November 30, 2024.

Goals: S. Azimov (45+1'), J. Iskanderov (53' pen), J. Đokić (58'), R. Turdimurodov (60'), Islombek Mamatkazin (71'), R. Jiyanov (90+7').

The match was played at Markaziy Stadion in Namangan.

Navbahor vs Andijan — Super League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Navbahor vs Andijan