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Navarro vs Siero — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Navarro
Navarro
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Siero
Siero
9/14/2019Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 4Estadio Tabiella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Navarro44%
×Draw29%
Siero27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navarro
1.25
Siero
0.92

Navarro creates 36% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 46 away

creates per match

Navarro
1.05
Siero
0.74

allows per match

Navarro
1.09
Siero
1.46

finishing

Navarro+0.00on par
Siero+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navarro ↓

Siero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Navarro or draw
73%
Navarro or Siero
71%
Draw or Siero
56%

Winning margin

Navarro wins by 2+
20%
Siero wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Navarro 1+ goals
71%
Navarro 2+ goals
36%
Navarro 3+ goals
13%
Siero 1+ goals
60%
Siero 2+ goals
23%
Siero 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Navarro (draw refunded)
62%
Siero (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navarro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Siero away — creates 0.74, concedes 1.46 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navarro attack 1.05 + Siero defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Siero attack 0.74 + Navarro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Navarro scores more
44%
level
29%
Siero scores more
27%

Navarro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navarro vs Siero

Siero beat Navarro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Tabiella in Avilés.