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Navarro vs Lenense — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Navarro
Navarro
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Lenense
Lenense
A. Rivero 44'
F. Zielinski 58'
J. Gonzalez 42'
3/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 27Estadio Tabiella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Navarro47%
×Draw27%
Lenense25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navarro
1.38
Lenense
0.93

Navarro creates 48% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 96 away

creates per match

Navarro
1.05
Lenense
0.76

allows per match

Navarro
1.09
Lenense
1.71

finishing

Navarro+0.00on par
Lenense+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navarro ↓

Lenense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Navarro or draw
75%
Navarro or Lenense
73%
Draw or Lenense
53%

Winning margin

Navarro wins by 2+
23%
Lenense wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Navarro 1+ goals
75%
Navarro 2+ goals
40%
Navarro 3+ goals
16%
Lenense 1+ goals
61%
Lenense 2+ goals
24%
Lenense 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Navarro (draw refunded)
65%
Lenense (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navarro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Lenense away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.71 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navarro attack 1.05 + Lenense defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.38

Lenense attack 0.76 + Navarro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Navarro scores more
47%
level
27%
Lenense scores more
25%

Navarro at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
J. Gonzalez
44'
A. Rivero
51'
Welli
58'
F. Zielinski
Navarro
Lenense
Davo
Manager: Davo
Manolo Simón
Manager: Manolo Simón

Match Recap: Navarro vs Lenense

Lenense beat Navarro 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 22, 2026.

Goals: J. Gonzalez (42'), A. Rivero (44'), F. Zielinski (58').

The match was played at Estadio Tabiella in Avilés.