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Navarro vs Gijón Industrial — Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Navarro
Navarro
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Gijón Industrial
Gijón Industrial
4/2/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 2Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 29Estadio Tabiella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Navarro45%
×Draw27%
Gijón Industrial28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navarro
1.37
Gijón Industrial
1.02

Navarro creates 34% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 80 away

creates per match

Navarro
1.05
Gijón Industrial
0.95

allows per match

Navarro
1.09
Gijón Industrial
1.69

finishing

Navarro+0.00on par
Gijón Industrial+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navarro ↓

Gijón Industrial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Navarro or draw
72%
Navarro or Gijón Industrial
73%
Draw or Gijón Industrial
55%

Winning margin

Navarro wins by 2+
21%
Gijón Industrial wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Navarro 1+ goals
75%
Navarro 2+ goals
40%
Navarro 3+ goals
16%
Gijón Industrial 1+ goals
64%
Gijón Industrial 2+ goals
27%
Gijón Industrial 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Navarro (draw refunded)
62%
Gijón Industrial (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navarro at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.09 · 65 matches

Gijón Industrial away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.69 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navarro attack 1.05 + Gijón Industrial defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.37

Gijón Industrial attack 0.95 + Navarro defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Navarro scores more
45%
level
27%
Gijón Industrial scores more
28%

Navarro at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Navarro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 2: Navarro 2–1 Gijón Industrial

Navarro beat Gijón Industrial 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on April 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Tabiella in Avilés.