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Navalcarnero vs Torrejón — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero
CANC
22:00
Torrejón
Torrejón
5/9/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 37Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navalcarnero51%
×Draw25%
Torrejón24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navalcarnero
1.65
Torrejón
1.06

Navalcarnero creates 56% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 115 away

creates per match

Navalcarnero
1.80
Torrejón
1.25

allows per match

Navalcarnero
0.87
Torrejón
1.50

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par
Torrejón+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Torrejón →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw
76%
Navalcarnero or Torrejón
75%
Draw or Torrejón
49%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+
27%
Torrejón wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals
81%
Navalcarnero 2+ goals
49%
Navalcarnero 3+ goals
23%
Torrejón 1+ goals
65%
Torrejón 2+ goals
29%
Torrejón 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)
68%
Torrejón (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Torrejón away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.50 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.80 + Torrejón defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.65

Torrejón attack 1.25 + Navalcarnero defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Navalcarnero scores more
51%
level
25%
Torrejón scores more
24%

Navalcarnero at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Navalcarnero vs Torrejón — Match Preview

Navalcarnero face Torrejón on May 9, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Navalcarnero host Torrejón at Estadio Municipal Mariano González.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.