Navalcarnero 1–2 Santa Ana: Result & Stats

Navalcarnero

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Santa Ana

2/9/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 24Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navalcarnero60%

×Draw22%

Santa Ana18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavalcarneroExpected goals in this matchSanta Ana

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.87

0.92

Navalcarnero

1.87

Santa Ana

0.92

Navalcarnero creates 103% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 31 away

1.80

creates per match

0.97

0.87

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Navalcarnero

1.80

Santa Ana

0.97

allows per match

Navalcarnero

0.87

Santa Ana

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Santa Ana+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Santa Ana →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–012%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3–07%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw

82%

Navalcarnero or Santa Ana

78%

Draw or Santa Ana

40%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+

35%

Santa Ana wins by 2+

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals

85%

Navalcarnero 2+ goals

56%

Navalcarnero 3+ goals

29%

Santa Ana 1+ goals

60%

Santa Ana 2+ goals

23%

Santa Ana 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)

77%

Santa Ana (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Santa Ana away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.94 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.80 + Santa Ana defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.87

Santa Ana attack 0.97 + Navalcarnero defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 60%?"

Navalcarnero scores more

60%

level

22%

Santa Ana scores more

18%

Navalcarnero at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff