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Navalcarnero vs San Fernando Henares — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero
CANC
00:00
San Fernando Henares
San Fernando Henares
4/19/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 34Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navalcarnero56%
×Draw23%
San Fernando Henares21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navalcarnero
1.81
San Fernando Henares
1.00

Navalcarnero creates 81% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 29 away

creates per match

Navalcarnero
1.80
San Fernando Henares
1.14

allows per match

Navalcarnero
0.87
San Fernando Henares
1.83

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par
San Fernando Henares+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

San Fernando Henares →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw
79%
Navalcarnero or San Fernando Henares
77%
Draw or San Fernando Henares
44%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+
32%
San Fernando Henares wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals
84%
Navalcarnero 2+ goals
54%
Navalcarnero 3+ goals
27%
San Fernando Henares 1+ goals
63%
San Fernando Henares 2+ goals
26%
San Fernando Henares 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)
73%
San Fernando Henares (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

San Fernando Henares away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.83 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.80 + San Fernando Henares defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.81

San Fernando Henares attack 1.14 + Navalcarnero defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Navalcarnero scores more
56%
level
23%
San Fernando Henares scores more
21%

Navalcarnero at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Navalcarnero face San Fernando Henares (Tercera División RFEF - Group 7)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 returns with Navalcarnero hosting San Fernando Henares. Match starts April 19, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Navalcarnero host San Fernando Henares at Estadio Municipal Mariano González.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.