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Navalcarnero vs Moratalaz — Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 2019

Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero
CANC
00:00
Moratalaz
Moratalaz
3/22/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 7Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 · Group 7 - 30Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Navalcarnero53%
×Draw24%
Moratalaz22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navalcarnero
1.67
Moratalaz
0.99

Navalcarnero creates 69% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 48 away

creates per match

Navalcarnero
1.80
Moratalaz
1.10

allows per match

Navalcarnero
0.87
Moratalaz
1.54

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par
Moratalaz+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Moratalaz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw
78%
Navalcarnero or Moratalaz
76%
Draw or Moratalaz
47%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+
29%
Moratalaz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals
81%
Navalcarnero 2+ goals
50%
Navalcarnero 3+ goals
23%
Moratalaz 1+ goals
63%
Moratalaz 2+ goals
26%
Moratalaz 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)
70%
Moratalaz (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

Moratalaz away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.54 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.80 + Moratalaz defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Moratalaz attack 1.10 + Navalcarnero defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Navalcarnero scores more
53%
level
24%
Moratalaz scores more
22%

Navalcarnero at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Navalcarnero vs Moratalaz — Match Preview

Navalcarnero face Moratalaz on March 22, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 7 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Navalcarnero host Moratalaz at Estadio Municipal Mariano González.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.