Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Navalcarnero vs Getafe II — Primera División RFEF - Group 5 2020

Navalcarnero
Navalcarnero
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Getafe II
Getafe II
1/31/2021Primera División RFEF - Group 5Primera División RFEF - Group 5 · Group 5 - 12Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Navalcarnero40%
×Draw33%
Getafe II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navalcarnero
1.00
Getafe II
0.77

Navalcarnero creates 30% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Navalcarnero
0.92
Getafe II
0.62

allows per match

Navalcarnero
0.92
Getafe II
1.08

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par
Getafe II+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Getafe II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw
73%
Navalcarnero or Getafe II
67%
Draw or Getafe II
60%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+
15%
Getafe II wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals
63%
Navalcarnero 2+ goals
26%
Navalcarnero 3+ goals
8%
Getafe II 1+ goals
54%
Getafe II 2+ goals
18%
Getafe II 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)
59%
Getafe II (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 0.92, concedes 0.92 · 12 matches

Getafe II away — creates 0.62, concedes 1.08 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 0.92 + Getafe II defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.00

Getafe II attack 0.62 + Navalcarnero defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Navalcarnero scores more
40%
level
33%
Getafe II scores more
27%

Navalcarnero at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 5: Navalcarnero 0–0 Getafe II

Navalcarnero and Getafe II drew 0-0 in Primera División RFEF - Group 5 on January 31, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Mariano González in Navalcarnero.