Navalcarnero 2–0 Conquense: Result & Stats

Navalcarnero

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Conquense

2/9/2025

League #879 · Group 5 - 22Estadio Municipal Mariano González

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Navalcarnero61%

×Draw27%

Conquense12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavalcarneroExpected goals in this matchConquense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.47

Navalcarnero

1.42

Conquense

0.47

Navalcarnero creates 202% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.00

0.93

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Navalcarnero

1.50

Conquense

0.00

allows per match

Navalcarnero

0.93

Conquense

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Navalcarnero+0.00on par

Conquense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navalcarnero ↓

Conquense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Navalcarnero or draw

88%

Navalcarnero or Conquense

73%

Draw or Conquense

39%

Winning margin

Navalcarnero wins by 2+

31%

Conquense wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Navalcarnero 1+ goals

76%

Navalcarnero 2+ goals

41%

Navalcarnero 3+ goals

17%

Conquense 1+ goals

37%

Conquense 2+ goals

8%

Conquense 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Navalcarnero (draw refunded)

83%

Conquense (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navalcarnero at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.93 · 14 matches

Conquense away — creates 0.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navalcarnero attack 1.50 + Conquense defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.42

Conquense attack 0.00 + Navalcarnero defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Navalcarnero scores more

61%

level

27%

Conquense scores more

12%

Navalcarnero at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Navalcarnero will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff