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Naval vs Torina — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Naval
Naval
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Torina
Torina
10/6/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 5Campo de San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Naval39%
×Draw30%
Torina31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naval
1.13
Torina
0.97

Naval creates 16% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 110 away

creates per match

Naval
1.05
Torina
1.05

allows per match

Naval
0.89
Torina
1.21

finishing

Naval+0.00on par
Torina+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naval ↓

Torina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Naval or draw
69%
Naval or Torina
70%
Draw or Torina
61%

Winning margin

Naval wins by 2+
16%
Torina wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Naval 1+ goals
68%
Naval 2+ goals
31%
Naval 3+ goals
11%
Torina 1+ goals
62%
Torina 2+ goals
25%
Torina 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naval (draw refunded)
56%
Torina (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naval at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 64 matches

Torina away — creates 1.05, concedes 1.21 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naval attack 1.05 + Torina defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.13

Torina attack 1.05 + Naval defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Naval scores more
39%
level
30%
Torina scores more
31%

Naval at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Naval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naval vs Torina

Torina beat Naval 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on October 6, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de San Francisco in Reinosa.