Naval 1–1 Guarnizo: Result & Stats

Naval

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Guarnizo

3/17/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Campo de San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Naval37%

×Draw29%

Guarnizo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NavalExpected goals in this matchGuarnizo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.06

Naval

1.13

Guarnizo

1.06

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 111 away

1.05

creates per match

1.23

0.89

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Naval

1.05

Guarnizo

1.23

allows per match

Naval

0.89

Guarnizo

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naval+0.00on par

Guarnizo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naval ↓

Guarnizo →

0–011%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Naval or draw

66%

Naval or Guarnizo

71%

Draw or Guarnizo

63%

Winning margin

Naval wins by 2+

15%

Guarnizo wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Naval 1+ goals

68%

Naval 2+ goals

31%

Naval 3+ goals

11%

Guarnizo 1+ goals

65%

Guarnizo 2+ goals

29%

Guarnizo 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Naval (draw refunded)

52%

Guarnizo (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Naval at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 64 matches

Guarnizo away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.20 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Naval attack 1.05 + Guarnizo defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.13

Guarnizo attack 1.23 + Naval defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 37%?"

Naval scores more

37%

level

29%

Guarnizo scores more

34%

Naval at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Naval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff