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Naval vs Gimnástica Torrelavega — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Naval
Naval
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gimnástica Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1/16/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 16Campo de San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 59+ matches

Naval26%
×Draw29%
Gimnástica Torrelavega45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naval
0.91
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.28

Gimnástica Torrelavega creates 41% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 59 away

creates per match

Naval
1.05
Gimnástica Torrelavega
1.68

allows per match

Naval
0.89
Gimnástica Torrelavega
0.76

finishing

Naval+0.00on par
Gimnástica Torrelavega+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naval ↓

Gimnástica Torrelavega →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naval or draw
55%
Naval or Gimnástica Torrelavega
71%
Draw or Gimnástica Torrelavega
74%

Winning margin

Naval wins by 2+
9%
Gimnástica Torrelavega wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Naval 1+ goals
60%
Naval 2+ goals
23%
Naval 3+ goals
6%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 1+ goals
72%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 2+ goals
37%
Gimnástica Torrelavega 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Naval (draw refunded)
37%
Gimnástica Torrelavega (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naval at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 64 matches

Gimnástica Torrelavega away — creates 1.68, concedes 0.76 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naval attack 1.05 + Gimnástica Torrelavega defence 0.76 → ÷2 → 0.91

Gimnástica Torrelavega attack 1.68 + Naval defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Naval scores more
26%
level
29%
Gimnástica Torrelavega scores more
45%

Gimnástica Torrelavega at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Gimnástica Torrelavega will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naval vs Gimnástica Torrelavega

Naval beat Gimnástica Torrelavega 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on January 16, 2022.

The match was played at Campo de San Francisco in Reinosa.