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Naval vs Castro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Naval
Naval
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Castro
Castro
12/1/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 13Campo de San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Naval43%
×Draw29%
Castro28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naval
1.25
Castro
0.96

Naval creates 30% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 96 away

creates per match

Naval
1.05
Castro
1.02

allows per match

Naval
0.89
Castro
1.46

finishing

Naval+0.00on par
Castro+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naval ↓

Castro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Naval or draw
72%
Naval or Castro
71%
Draw or Castro
57%

Winning margin

Naval wins by 2+
19%
Castro wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Naval 1+ goals
71%
Naval 2+ goals
36%
Naval 3+ goals
13%
Castro 1+ goals
62%
Castro 2+ goals
25%
Castro 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Naval (draw refunded)
60%
Castro (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naval at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 64 matches

Castro away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naval attack 1.05 + Castro defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.25

Castro attack 1.02 + Naval defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Naval scores more
43%
level
29%
Castro scores more
28%

Naval at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Naval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3: Naval 2–0 Castro

Naval beat Castro 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on December 1, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de San Francisco in Reinosa.