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Naval vs Atlético Albericia — Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 2019

Naval
Naval
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Atlético Albericia
Atlético Albericia
11/17/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 3Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Campo de San Francisco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Naval37%
×Draw27%
Atlético Albericia36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Naval
1.25
Atlético Albericia
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 108 away

creates per match

Naval
1.05
Atlético Albericia
1.57

allows per match

Naval
0.89
Atlético Albericia
1.44

finishing

Naval+0.00on par
Atlético Albericia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naval ↓

Atlético Albericia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Naval or draw
64%
Naval or Atlético Albericia
73%
Draw or Atlético Albericia
63%

Winning margin

Naval wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Albericia wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Naval 1+ goals
71%
Naval 2+ goals
36%
Naval 3+ goals
13%
Atlético Albericia 1+ goals
71%
Atlético Albericia 2+ goals
35%
Atlético Albericia 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Naval (draw refunded)
51%
Atlético Albericia (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naval at home — creates 1.05, concedes 0.89 · 64 matches

Atlético Albericia away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.44 · 108 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naval attack 1.05 + Atlético Albericia defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.25

Atlético Albericia attack 1.57 + Naval defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Naval scores more
37%
level
27%
Atlético Albericia scores more
36%

Naval at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Naval will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Naval vs Atlético Albericia

Atlético Albericia beat Naval 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on November 17, 2024.

The match was played at Campo de San Francisco in Reinosa.