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Navad Urmia vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 1
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
3/9/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Takhti Sports Complex (Urmia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Navad Urmia36%
×Draw34%
Shahin Bushehr30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
0.89
Shahin Bushehr
0.78

Navad Urmia creates 14% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 48 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
70%
Navad Urmia or Shahin Bushehr
66%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
64%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
13%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
59%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
22%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
6%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
54%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
18%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
55%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 0.89

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
36%
level
34%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
30%

Navad Urmia at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Shahin Bushehr

Navad Urmia and Shahin Bushehr drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on March 9, 2019.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex (Urmia).