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Navad Urmia vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 0
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
9/21/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Navad Urmia40%
×Draw31%
Qashqai Shiraz29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
1.07
Qashqai Shiraz
0.86

Navad Urmia creates 24% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 69 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Qashqai Shiraz
0.84

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Qashqai Shiraz
1.33

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
71%
Navad Urmia or Qashqai Shiraz
69%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
60%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
16%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
66%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
29%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
9%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
58%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
21%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
58%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.33 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.07

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.84 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
40%
level
31%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
29%

Navad Urmia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Qashqai Shiraz

Navad Urmia beat Qashqai Shiraz 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.