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Navad Urmia vs Malavan — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 5
Malavan
Malavan
A. Mostafavi 32'
K. Zebarjad 90+9'
M. Yazdani 90+6'
S. Bazgir 82', 65'
Z. Mahya 20' (pen)
6/27/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 31Shahid Bakeri Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navad Urmia35%
×Draw35%
Malavan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
0.86
Malavan
0.77

Navad Urmia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 51 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.67
Malavan
0.73

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.80
Malavan
1.06

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Malavan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–115%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
70%
Navad Urmia or Malavan
65%
Draw or Malavan
65%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
12%
Malavan wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
58%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
21%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
6%
Malavan 1+ goals
54%
Malavan 2+ goals
18%
Malavan 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
54%
Malavan (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.06 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.67 + Malavan defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.86

Malavan attack 0.73 + Navad Urmia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
35%
level
35%
Malavan scores more
30%

Navad Urmia at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
Z. MahyaPenalty
32'
A. Mostafavi
65'
S. Bazgir
82'
S. Bazgir
90+6'
M. Yazdani
90+9'
K. Zebarjad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Malavan

Malavan beat Navad Urmia 5-1 in Azadegan League on June 27, 2021.

Goals: Z. Mahya (20' pen), A. Mostafavi (32'), S. Bazgir (65', 82'), M. Yazdani (90+6'), K. Zebarjad (90+9').

The match was played at Shahid Bakeri Stadium in Urmia.