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Navad Urmia vs Khooneh Be Khooneh — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
0 – 2
Khooneh Be Khooneh
Khooneh Be Khooneh
11/24/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 14Takhti Sports Complex (Urmia)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Navad Urmia44%
×Draw33%
Khooneh Be Khooneh23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
1.03
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.66

Navad Urmia creates 56% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 16 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Khooneh Be Khooneh
0.44

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Khooneh Be Khooneh
1.25

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Khooneh Be Khooneh+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Khooneh Be Khooneh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
77%
Navad Urmia or Khooneh Be Khooneh
67%
Draw or Khooneh Be Khooneh
56%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
17%
Khooneh Be Khooneh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
64%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
28%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
9%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 1+ goals
48%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 2+ goals
14%
Khooneh Be Khooneh 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
65%
Khooneh Be Khooneh (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Khooneh Be Khooneh away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.25 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Khooneh Be Khooneh defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.03

Khooneh Be Khooneh attack 0.44 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
44%
level
33%
Khooneh Be Khooneh scores more
23%

Navad Urmia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Khooneh Be Khooneh

Khooneh Be Khooneh beat Navad Urmia 2-0 in Azadegan League on November 24, 2018.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex (Urmia).