Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Navad Urmia vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
0 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
3/7/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Navad Urmia27%
×Draw34%
Kheybar Khorramabad38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
0.73
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.92

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 26% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 67 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.67
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.80
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–118%
0–28%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–05%
2–15%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
62%
Navad Urmia or Kheybar Khorramabad
66%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
73%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
8%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
52%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
17%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
4%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
60%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
23%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
42%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.67 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.73

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Navad Urmia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
27%
level
34%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
38%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'
J. Nasir

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Kheybar Khorramabad

Navad Urmia and Kheybar Khorramabad drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.