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Navad Urmia vs Chooka Talesh — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 1
Chooka Talesh
Chooka Talesh
6/14/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 29Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Navad Urmia49%
×Draw29%
Chooka Talesh22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
1.27
Chooka Talesh
0.74

Navad Urmia creates 72% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 33 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.82
Chooka Talesh
0.61

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.88
Chooka Talesh
1.73

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Chooka Talesh+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Chooka Talesh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
78%
Navad Urmia or Chooka Talesh
71%
Draw or Chooka Talesh
51%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
23%
Chooka Talesh wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
72%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
36%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
14%
Chooka Talesh 1+ goals
52%
Chooka Talesh 2+ goals
17%
Chooka Talesh 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
69%
Chooka Talesh (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.82, concedes 0.88 · 65 matches

Chooka Talesh away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.73 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.82 + Chooka Talesh defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.27

Chooka Talesh attack 0.61 + Navad Urmia defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
49%
level
29%
Chooka Talesh scores more
22%

Navad Urmia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Navad Urmia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Navad Urmia vs Chooka Talesh

Navad Urmia and Chooka Talesh drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on June 14, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.