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Navad Urmia vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
FT
1 – 1
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
F. Asadi 19' (pen)
M. Majidi 39' (pen)
1/20/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Takhti Sports Complex

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Navad Urmia25%
×Draw37%
Aluminium Arak38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Navad Urmia
0.61
Aluminium Arak
0.82

Aluminium Arak creates 34% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 20 away

creates per match

Navad Urmia
0.67
Aluminium Arak
0.85

allows per match

Navad Urmia
0.80
Aluminium Arak
0.55

finishing

Navad Urmia+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

83%Under
  • Under83
  • Over17

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Navad Urmia ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–024%
0–120%
0–28%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–04%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (24%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
76%24%1.5
42%58%2.5
17%83%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Navad Urmia or draw
62%
Navad Urmia or Aluminium Arak
63%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
75%

Winning margin

Navad Urmia wins by 2+
6%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Navad Urmia 1+ goals
46%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
13%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
2%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
56%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
20%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
40%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Navad Urmia at home — creates 0.67, concedes 0.80 · 51 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Navad Urmia attack 0.67 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.61

Aluminium Arak attack 0.85 + Navad Urmia defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Navad Urmia scores more
25%
level
37%
Aluminium Arak scores more
38%

Aluminium Arak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'
F. AsadiPenalty
39'
M. MajidiPenalty
59'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Navad Urmia 1–1 Aluminium Arak

Navad Urmia and Aluminium Arak drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on January 20, 2020.

Goals: F. Asadi (19' pen), M. Majidi (39' pen).

The match was played at Takhti Sports Complex in Urmia.