Nautico Recife 0–3 São Bernardo: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

São Bernardo

Pablo Dyego 88'

Foguinho 81'

Pedro Vitor 64'

4/18/2026

Serie B · Round 5Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Nautico Recife50%

×Draw27%

São Bernardo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchSão Bernardo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

0.92

Nautico Recife

1.46

São Bernardo

0.92

Nautico Recife creates 59% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 7 away

1.62

creates per match

1.26

0.58

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.62

São Bernardo

1.26

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.58

São Bernardo

1.30

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

+0.74scores more than expected

finishing

Nautico Recife-0.48scores less

São Bernardo+0.74scores more

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

São Bernardo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

76%

Nautico Recife or São Bernardo

73%

Draw or São Bernardo

50%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

25%

São Bernardo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

77%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

43%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

18%

São Bernardo 1+ goals

60%

São Bernardo 2+ goals

23%

São Bernardo 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

68%

São Bernardo (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.58 · 7 matches

São Bernardo away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.30 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.62 + São Bernardo defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.46

São Bernardo attack 1.26 + Nautico Recife defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

50%

level

27%

São Bernardo scores more

24%

Nautico Recife at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Pedro Vitor

São Bernardo · F

8.2

Match Events

1'

Rodrigo Ferreira

3'

ViníciusMissed penalty

29'

36'

45+6'

45+6'

46'

Felipe Saraiva← Juninho

46'

Junior Oliveira← Alex Alves

46'

Echapora← Pedrinho

62'

Samuel Felix← Luiz Felipe

64'

Pedro Vitor

66'

Pedro VitorGoal confirmed

69'

Pablo Dyego← Daniel Amorim

69'

Jemerson← Dudu Miraima

73'

Victor Andrade← Vinicius

73'

73'

77'

77'

81'

Foguinho↳ Helder Maciel

83'

FoguinhoGoal confirmed

87'

Hugo Sanches← Pedro Vitor

88'

Pablo Dyego↳ Echapora

90+8'

Samuel

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoSão

Overview

61%Possession39%

18Total Shots11

1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.33

10Corners2

15Fouls16

Shots

18Total Shots11

2On Target5

13Off Target3

3Blocked3

12Inside Box7

6Outside Box4

Passing

61%Possession39%

419Total Passes286

355Accurate Passes224

85%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

0.19Goals Prevented0.19

Discipline

15Fouls16

2Yellow Cards6

2Offsides2

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs São Bernardo

São Bernardo beat Nautico Recife 3-0 in Serie B on April 18, 2026.

Goals: Pedro Vitor (64'), Foguinho (81'), Pablo Dyego (88').

Nautico Recife controlled possession (61%) and registered 18 shots to 11.

The match was played at Aflitos in Recife.

Nautico Recife vs São Bernardo — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Nautico Recife vs São Bernardo