Nautico Recife 1–0 Ponte Preta: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ponte Preta

Vinicius 78' (pen)

4/4/2026

Serie B · Round 3Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Nautico Recife65%

×Draw23%

Ponte Preta12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchPonte Preta

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.68

0.55

Nautico Recife

1.68

Ponte Preta

0.55

Nautico Recife creates 205% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

1.49

creates per match

0.76

0.35

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.49

Ponte Preta

0.76

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.35

Ponte Preta

1.87

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.19scores less than expected

finishing

Nautico Recife-0.29scores less

Ponte Preta-0.19scores less

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Ponte Preta →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

88%

Nautico Recife or Ponte Preta

77%

Draw or Ponte Preta

35%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

37%

Ponte Preta wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

81%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

50%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

24%

Ponte Preta 1+ goals

42%

Ponte Preta 2+ goals

11%

Ponte Preta 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

85%

Ponte Preta (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.35 · 5 matches

Ponte Preta away — creates 0.76, concedes 1.87 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.49 + Ponte Preta defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Ponte Preta attack 0.76 + Nautico Recife defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

65%

level

23%

Ponte Preta scores more

12%

Nautico Recife at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Vinicius

Nautico Recife · M

8.9

Match Events

31'

Leonai Souza de Almeida

45+3'

Luis Phelipe

46'

Ramon← Leonai Souza

52'

Wenderson

58'

Victor Andrade← Juninho

65'

Bruno Lopes← Luis Phelipe

67'

Rodrigo Saravia

70'

DodôPenalty cancelled

73'

Arnaldo← Matheus Ribeiro

73'

Derek← Paulo Sergio

74'

Rodriguinho← Willian Pottker

74'

Andre Lima← Elvis

78'

ViniciusPenalty

81'

Danilo Barcelos← Diego Porfirio

81'

Jonathan Cafu← Bryan Borges

84'

Dodô

90+2'

Jonathan Cafú

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoPonte

Overview

69%Possession31%

23Total Shots4

2.40Expected Goals (xG)0.60

17Corners3

14Fouls21

Shots

23Total Shots4

6On Target4

12Off Target0

5Blocked1

15Inside Box4

8Outside Box0

Passing

69%Possession31%

448Total Passes206

387Accurate Passes142

86%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

3Saves5

0.18Goals Prevented0.18

Discipline

14Fouls21

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards2

0Offsides1

Serie B: Nautico Recife 1–0 Ponte Preta

Nautico Recife beat Ponte Preta 1-0 in Serie B on April 4, 2026.

Goals: Vinicius (78' pen).

Nautico Recife controlled possession (69%) and registered 23 shots to 4.

The match was played at Aflitos in Recife.

Nautico Recife vs Ponte Preta — Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie B: Nautico Recife 1–0 Ponte Preta