Nautico Recife 1–0 Juazeirense: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Juazeirense

J. Ortigoza 90+5'

7/21/2018

Serie C · Round 15Itaipava Arena Pernambuco (Recife, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nautico Recife64%

×Draw23%

Juazeirense13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchJuazeirense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.74

0.63

Nautico Recife

1.74

Juazeirense

0.63

Nautico Recife creates 176% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 9 away

1.70

creates per match

0.44

0.81

allows per match

1.78

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.70

Juazeirense

0.44

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.81

Juazeirense

1.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Juazeirense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Juazeirense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

87%

Nautico Recife or Juazeirense

77%

Draw or Juazeirense

36%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

37%

Juazeirense wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

82%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

52%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

25%

Juazeirense 1+ goals

47%

Juazeirense 2+ goals

13%

Juazeirense 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

83%

Juazeirense (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 53 matches

Juazeirense away — creates 0.44, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.70 + Juazeirense defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.74

Juazeirense attack 0.44 + Nautico Recife defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

64%

level

23%

Juazeirense scores more

13%

Nautico Recife at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

J. Ortigoza← Lelê

46'

Carlinhos Miranda← Capone

62'

Jobson← Dudu

63'

Enercino← Alyson

73'

Victor Sapo← Salatiel

86'

Gilmar← Assis

90+5'

J. Ortigoza

Nautico

Juazeirense

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Márcio Goiano

46'▲J. Ortigoza←▼Lelê

62'▲Jobson←▼Dudu

86'▲Gilmar←▼Assis

Nautico Recife substitutes

OrtigozaJobsonGilmarBrenoCamachoCarlosJiménezTimbóMedinaPotiguarTharcysioCosta

Manager: Evandro Guimarães

46'▲Carlinhos Miranda←▼Capone

63'▲Enercino←▼Alyson

73'▲Victor Sapo←▼Salatiel

Juazeirense substitutes

MirandaEnercinoSapoAndradeAltemarCascataLeviYanPatrik