Nautico Recife 4–2 Imperatriz: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Imperatriz

Wallace Pernambucano 66', 55'

J. Roa Jiménez 40'

Andre Krobel 18'

Renan Guimarães 76'

Valderrama 64'

5/4/2019

Serie C · Round 2Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Nautico Recife71%

×Draw17%

Imperatriz12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchImperatriz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.43

0.88

Nautico Recife

2.43

Imperatriz

0.88

Nautico Recife creates 176% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 19 away

1.70

creates per match

0.95

0.81

allows per match

3.16

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.70

Imperatriz

0.95

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.81

Imperatriz

3.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Imperatriz+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Imperatriz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

88%

Nautico Recife or Imperatriz

83%

Draw or Imperatriz

29%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

48%

Imperatriz wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

91%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

69%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

43%

Imperatriz 1+ goals

59%

Imperatriz 2+ goals

22%

Imperatriz 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

86%

Imperatriz (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 53 matches

Imperatriz away — creates 0.95, concedes 3.16 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.70 + Imperatriz defence 3.16 → ÷2 → 2.43

Imperatriz attack 0.95 + Nautico Recife defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

71%

level

17%

Imperatriz scores more

12%

Nautico Recife at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

Andre Krobel

40'

J. Roa Jiménez

46'

Val Barreto← Wesllen Sousa

55'

Wallace Pernambucano

62'

Tarcísio← Lucas Paraíba

64'

Valderrama

65'

N. Cisneros← Odilávio

66'

Wallace Pernambucano

71'

Gabriel Cajuarapa← Lucas

74'

Matheus Lima← Junior Chicão

76'

Renan Guimarães

85'

Rhaldney← Wagner

Nautico

Imperatriz

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Manager: Márcio Goiano

62'▲Tarcísio←▼Lucas Paraíba

65'▲N. Cisneros←▼Odilávio

85'▲Rhaldney←▼Wagner

Nautico Recife substitutes

TarcísioCisnerosRhaldneyCarlosMatosCarvalhoAssisOliveiraSuéliton

Manager: Ruy Scarpino

46'▲Val Barreto←▼Wesllen Sousa

71'▲Gabriel Cajuarapa←▼Lucas

74'▲Matheus Lima←▼Junior Chicão

Imperatriz substitutes

BarretoCajuarapaLimaWaldsonAelsonVianaJonasPaulloTomaz

Serie C: Nautico Recife 4–2 Imperatriz

Nautico Recife beat Imperatriz 4-2 in Serie C on May 4, 2019.

Goals: Andre Krobel (18'), J. Roa Jiménez (40'), Wallace Pernambucano (55', 66'), Valderrama (64'), Renan Guimarães (76').

The match was played at Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho (Recife, Pernambuco).

Nautico Recife vs Imperatriz — Serie C 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Serie C: Nautico Recife 4–2 Imperatriz