Nautico Recife 0–1 Fortaleza EC: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Fortaleza EC

Mateus Silva 44' (OG)

6/9/2026

Serie B · Round 12Estádio dos Aflitos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 7+ matches

Nautico Recife52%

×Draw27%

Fortaleza EC21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchFortaleza EC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

0.82

Nautico Recife

1.44

Fortaleza EC

0.82

Nautico Recife creates 76% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 10 away

1.62

creates per match

1.06

0.58

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.62

Fortaleza EC

1.06

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.58

Fortaleza EC

1.26

-0.48scores less than expected

finishing

-0.56scores less than expected

finishing

Nautico Recife-0.48scores less

Fortaleza EC-0.56scores less

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No57
Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Fortaleza EC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

79%

Nautico Recife or Fortaleza EC

73%

Draw or Fortaleza EC

48%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

26%

Fortaleza EC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

76%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

42%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

18%

Fortaleza EC 1+ goals

56%

Fortaleza EC 2+ goals

20%

Fortaleza EC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

71%

Fortaleza EC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

30%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.62, concedes 0.58 · 7 matches

Fortaleza EC away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.26 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.62 + Fortaleza EC defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.44

Fortaleza EC attack 1.06 + Nautico Recife defence 0.58 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

52%

level

27%

Fortaleza EC scores more

21%

Nautico Recife at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

Joao Ricardo

Fortaleza EC · G

10.0

Match Events

-5'

36'

38'

39'

44'

Mateus SilvaOwn goal

46'

Lucas Crispim← J. B. Miritello

46'

T. Pochettino← Vitinho

51'

RodriguinhoCard upgrade

52'

Rodriguinho

60'

Yuri← Igor Fernandes

62'

Kayke← Luiz Fernando

64'

Juninho← Derek

64'

Ramon← Leonai Souza

67'

Kayke

76'

Maurício Júnior

80'

Wanderson← Betao

80'

Rosa← Wenderson

80'

G. Fuentes← Mauricio Junior

85'

Mateus Silva

90+5'

Juninho

90'

Ryan← Lucas Sasha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoFortaleza

Overview

73%Possession27%

31Total Shots4

2.24Expected Goals (xG)0.19

10Corners4

6Fouls16

Shots

31Total Shots4

10On Target1

13Off Target2

8Blocked1

17Inside Box3

14Outside Box1

Passing

73%Possession27%

506Total Passes192

464Accurate Passes130

92%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves9

1.92Goals Prevented1.92

Discipline

6Fouls16

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

3Offsides6