Nautico Recife vs CRB — Serie B 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 10+ matches
Nautico Recife38%
CRB36%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 10 home / 15 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under51
- Over49
Close call
Both teams score
- Yes53
- No47
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Nautico Recife ↓
Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Nautico Recife at home — creates 0.80, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches
CRB away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Nautico Recife attack 0.80 + CRB defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.33
CRB attack 1.20 + Nautico Recife defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.30
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Nautico Recife at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Criciuma
Novorizontino
Operario-PR
Goias
Vila Nova
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
Cuiaba
Juventude
Sport RecifeCRB
Botafogo SP
Londrina
Fortaleza EC
Athletic Club
São Bernardo
AvaiNautico Recife
Remo
Chapecoense-sc
America Mineiro
Ferroviária
Atletico Paranaense
Amazonas
Coritiba
Volta Redonda
Ponte PretaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Nautico Recife host CRB on Tuesday, 28 September 2021 at 22:00. The match is part of the Serie B 2026/2027 season.
Serie B: Nautico Recife 1–3 CRB
CRB beat Nautico Recife 3-1 in Serie B on September 28, 2021.
Goals: Pablo Dyego (16', 27'), Alvaro (58'), Yago (67' o.g.).
Nautico Recife controlled possession (68%) and registered 19 shots to 13.
The match was played at Itaipava Arena Pernambuco in Recife, Pernambuco.