Nautico Recife 2–1 Coritiba: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Coritiba

Rhaldney 53'

Caio Dantas 16'

Luciano Castán 90+6'

11/6/2021

Serie B · Round 34Estádio Eládio de Barros Carvalho

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Nautico Recife57%

×Draw26%

Coritiba17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchCoritiba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.69

Nautico Recife

1.50

Coritiba

0.69

Nautico Recife creates 117% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 10 away

1.49

creates per match

1.03

0.35

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.49

Coritiba

1.03

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.35

Coritiba

1.50

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

-0.53scores less than expected

finishing

Nautico Recife-0.29scores less

Coritiba-0.53scores less

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Coritiba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

83%

Nautico Recife or Coritiba

74%

Draw or Coritiba

43%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

30%

Coritiba wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

78%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

44%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

19%

Coritiba 1+ goals

50%

Coritiba 2+ goals

15%

Coritiba 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

77%

Coritiba (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.35 · 5 matches

Coritiba away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.50 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.49 + Coritiba defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Coritiba attack 1.03 + Nautico Recife defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

57%

level

26%

Coritiba scores more

17%

Nautico Recife at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

98

Rhaldney

Nautico Recife · M

7.6

Match Events

16'

Caio Dantas↳ Vinícius

18'

Matheus Trindade

53'

Rhaldney↳ Junior Tavares

56'

Carlão← Camutanga

61'

Matheus Alexandre← Natanael

61'

Bochecha← Val

61'

Rafinha← Robinho

67'

68'

68'

68'

68'

70'

Marciel← Matheus Jesus

70'

Djavan← Rhaldney

71'

Jailson← Matheus Trindade

84'

Robinho Moreira← Igor Paixão

84'

William← Léo Gamalho

90+6'

Luciano Castán↳ Rafinha

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NauticoCoritiba

Overview

42%Possession58%

16Total Shots24

5Corners5

14Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots24

3On Target7

8Off Target11

5Blocked6

11Inside Box11

5Outside Box13

Passing

42%Possession58%

300Total Passes426

224Accurate Passes352

75%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

6Saves1

Discipline

14Fouls11

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards1

2Offsides1